Ile-de-France property market: a weakened and uncertain market in the wake of the health crisis
During a press conference held on 28 May 2020, the Paris-Île-de-France Chamber of Notaries presented the state of the real estate market in the first quarter of 2020.
Volumes
The sharp drop in sales volumes in March 2020, linked to both the health crisis and containment, weighs on the real estate business in the first quarter of 2020. However, this activity had experienced an initial slowdown in February 2020 due to social unrest at the end of 2019, which may have limited visits and pre-contract signatures. The annual decline in activity is also generalised. In Paris, apartment sales volumes in the first quarter of 2020 were down 23% compared to the first quarter of 2019. However, the apartment market in the inner suburbs held up better, with a 13% decline in activity. However, trends are very heterogeneous depending on the department. House sales volumes fell sharply compared to the first quarter of 2019, both in the inner suburbs (-27%) and the outer suburbs (-26%).
Prices
In the first quarter of 2020, price increases continue and are thus in line with the trend. Indeed, during this same period, prices reached €10,460 per m2 in Paris (+8% in one year) and could approach €10,700 in July (+7.5%) according to the indicators put forward by the Notaires du Grand Paris, provided however that the pre-contracts change as much and at the same rate as usual.
Over the same quarter, prices vary between €7,950 per m2 in Pont de Flandre (19th arrondissement) and €16,880 in the Odéon district (6th arrondissement). And for the first time, the price of apartments exceeds €5,000 per m2 in the whole of the Petite Couronne. According to the leading indicators on the pre-contracts of the Notaires du Grand Paris, the annual price increases for apartments in the inner suburbs should continue to rise, but more moderately to around 5.5% this summer.
However, in the inner suburbs, house prices have risen by 3.7% in one year, which is less than the price of apartments (+6.5% in one year). And in the Grande Couronne, annual increases in apartment prices should also continue in the coming months and exceed 5% in July 2020. Thus, the record level of 3,170 € per m2 recorded in the 3rd quarter of 2011 could be exceeded! (…)